I certainly haven't hired perfectly, but I've got a fairly good track-record so far. One of the things I've learned is that it rarely works to straight-up replace people who transition off your team. Whether the person was a world-beater or someone you couldn't get rid of quickly enough, if you go right back out with the exact same job description, you're probably going to make a mistake.
Organizations change quickly. Circumstances change quickly. If you go out and try to hire someone for the exact same job you hired a person for years ago, you're assuming that your needs are the same as they were years ago. That's rarely a good assumption.
The other challenge with strictly replacing people is that you tend to hire based on the last person in the role when you're strictly replacing. If you're replacing an all-star, you tend to look for people who look exactly like their predecessor. That sets them up to fail when it turns out their predecessor was a unique individual.
The other side of the coin is trying to replace a bad fit. You tend to replace poor fits reactively - "John was an introvert; we need someone more extroverted in this role." Often, reactive hiring causes you to emphasize characteristics and skills that don't necessarily need to be emphasized. The fact that John was a "zero" when it comes to people-skills doesn't mean the answer is to hire Mr. Personality.
I prefer (when possible) to re-vision a role when we get ready to hire, even if we are filling an existing position. We re-examine our needs, write a job description from scratch, and even try to change the job title if something else would be more descriptive. That also helps prevent confusion within the organization from people who have a memory of someone who previously filled a similar role.
Sometimes existing roles have to be filled. People transition on and off the team. But resist the urge to try filling a vacuum created in the form of one person with someone who will ultimately be a different shape. If you're looking for a fit, the only way to find it is to re-vision the role every time.
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